Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the New York Mets 4-3 at Citi Field on July 25, 2026, completing a comeback win that the DiamondIQ model had given New York only a 32 percent chance of avoiding before first pitch. The Dodgers struck first and decisively in the third inning, when Kyle Tucker launched a home run off Nolan McLean that shifted win probability 10.5 percent in Los Angeles's favor. That three-run frame gave the Dodgers their lead, and despite the Mets trimming the deficit to one with a run in the fifth, Los Angeles added an insurance run in the same inning to maintain control heading into the late innings.

The eighth inning proved to be the game's defining sequence. Tyrone Taylor delivered the most impactful offensive play of the night for New York, ripping a double off Tanner Scott that swung win probability 21.0 percent in the Mets' favor and brought the tying run to the plate. Luis Robert Jr. then drew a walk off Edgardo Henriquez, pushing the model's estimate of a Mets victory up another 10.1 percent. New York had pulled within striking distance, but A.J. Ewing's strikeout against Scott erased 16.5 percent of that momentum, stalling the rally and leaving the Mets one run short entering the ninth.

Closer Brock Stewart ended the contest in the ninth by striking out Carson Benge, a sequence that carried a win-probability swing of positive 31.6 percent from the Dodgers' perspective and represented the single largest play of the game. Benge finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 31.4 percent, an unusual distinction given that his most consequential plate appearance ended the game against him, reflecting the sustained pressure New York created down the stretch. On the mound, Yoshinobu Yamamoto led Dodgers pitchers with a plus 9.1 percent WPA contribution, and Alex Vesia added 6.3 percent as part of a bullpen that ultimately preserved a one-run victory.