Toronto Blue Jays at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Toronto Blue Jays shut out the Boston Red Sox 6-0 at Fenway Park on July 25, 2026, holding Boston to a single hit across nine innings while the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 60 percent home win probability collapsed to zero by the final out. Toronto collected 15 hits and committed no errors, while Boston managed just one hit against a Blue Jays pitching staff that allowed nothing of consequence all night.

The game turned decisively in the third inning, when Toronto sent Sonny Gray to the ropes in a five-run burst that effectively ended the contest before the fourth inning began. George Springer delivered the killing blow, a home run off Gray that shifted win probability by 25.0 percentage points in Toronto's favor and served as the single most impactful play of the night. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. followed with a single that added another 9.7 percentage points, and Ernie Clement's double contributed 6.1 more, leaving Gray with a catastrophic minus-37.2 percent WPA for the evening. By the time the third inning concluded, the DiamondIQ model's estimate had swung so dramatically that the remainder of the game was largely procedural.

Springer finished as the game's standout performer with a cumulative WPA of plus-26.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.3, numbers that reflect how thoroughly his third-inning home run reshaped the game's probability landscape. Guerrero Jr. and Clement were strong complements, posting WPA figures of plus-8.6 and plus-4.2, respectively. On the mound, Dylan Cease was the primary beneficiary, earning plus-22.5 percent WPA across his outing while holding Boston's lineup in check, the most consequential pitching performance the DiamondIQ model registered on either side.