Los Angeles Dodgers at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers handed the New York Mets a 4-2 defeat at Citi Field on July 24, 2026, a game the DiamondIQ model gave the home side just a 32% chance of winning before first pitch — a probability that collapsed to zero by the final out. The Dodgers built their lead methodically, scoring single runs in the fourth and seventh innings before breaking the game open in the eighth, while the Mets managed only a run in the second and a late eighth-inning response that proved insufficient.

The decisive moment came in the top of the eighth when Kyle Tucker drove a home run off A.J. Minter, a swing that shifted the DiamondIQ model's win probability by 25.6 percentage points in Los Angeles's favor and ultimately served as the backbreaker. Tucker finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accumulating a remarkable plus-32.3% WPA and plus-2.7 RE24 on the night. The Mets' best counter came from Francisco Alvarez, whose solo home run off Evan Phillips in the bottom of the eighth registered a plus-9.8% win-probability swing and accounted for New York's second run, but the deficit was already too steep. A Carson Benge lineout to end the ninth, worth plus-14.4% in the Dodgers' direction, sealed the outcome. Freddie Freeman had also contributed meaningfully in the sixth, his double off Sean Manaea registering a plus-8.3% swing, though a Miguel Rojas double play in that same inning cost the Dodgers minus-13.7% and briefly stalled their momentum.

On the mound, Sean Manaea was the most pivotal pitcher by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a plus-27.0% WPA despite surrendering that Freeman double, his overall command of the game leaving Mets hitters largely ineffective across four hits total. Roki Sasaki contributed plus-18.6% WPA in his stint, and Cionel Pérez added a modest plus-1.6%. The model's lean throughout the night rested firmly with Los Angeles, and the Dodgers validated that assessment with a clean, error-free performance on the road.