Miami Marlins at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros defeated the Miami Marlins 5-3 at Daikin Park on July 21, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 51 percent pre-game home win probability to a final 100 percent certainty. Houston built its lead in bursts, scoring in each of the first two innings before the decisive fifth inning proved to be the turning point of the game. Miami had trimmed the deficit to some degree heading into that frame, but Isaac Paredes erased any sense of uncertainty with a home run off Tyler Zuber that carried the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus-23.3 percent. The Marlins answered with their most consequential offensive sequence in the top of the seventh, when Joe Mack connected on a home run off AJ Blubaugh for a plus-12.3 percent swing, and Miami also generated traction in the top of the fifth when Kyle Stowers doubled off Tatsuya Imai for a plus-12.0 percent shift. Javier Sanoja added a double off Josh Hader in the top of the ninth worth plus-8.9 percent, but Houston's lead proved insurmountable.

On the individual side, Paredes was the game's dominant offensive force, finishing with a plus-23.8 percent WPA and a plus-2.4 RE24, numbers that reflected just how thoroughly his fifth-inning blast reshaped the game's probability landscape. Stowers and Sanoja were Miami's most meaningful contributors with WPA figures of plus-8.2 and plus-6.8 percent respectively, though their efforts came too late or in insufficient concentration to swing the outcome. On the pitching side, Imai led all arms at plus-16.2 percent WPA, anchoring a Houston staff that also received strong contributions from Bennett Sousa at plus-8.1 percent and Hader at plus-6.3 percent despite surrendering the Sanoja double. Houston finished without an error while Miami committed one, and both clubs produced eight hits apiece, leaving execution and the Paredes home run as the clearest separation between the two sides.