Baltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

Boston took a 6-5 victory over Baltimore at Fenway Park on July 20, 2026, completing a back-and-forth contest that saw the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate give the Red Sox a 57 percent home win probability, a figure that climbed to 100 percent by the final out. The Orioles carried a one-run advantage into the bottom of the eighth before Caleb Durbin erased it with a home run off Tyler Wells, a swing that added 23.3 percent to Boston's win probability and stood as the single most impactful play of the game. Baltimore finished with four errors against a clean Boston defense, a disparity that proved consequential across a game decided by one run.

The Orioles had their best chance to wrestle momentum back in the sixth inning, when Jeremiah Jackson's single off Payton Tolle generated a 14.6 percent swing in Baltimore's favor, and Christian Encarnacion-Strand had earlier delivered an 11.1 percent swing with a solo home run against Tolle in the fifth. Baltimore finished with 11 hits to Boston's 10, but the four errors undermined their offensive production. Ceddanne Rafaela countered for Boston in the bottom of the seventh with a single off Yennier Cano that added 14.2 percent to the Red Sox's probability, keeping Boston ahead of Baltimore's late pushes.

Among individual performers, Encarnacion-Strand led all batters with a 20.4 percent WPA and 1.4 RE24 despite being on the losing side, while Willson Contreras posted 15.2 percent WPA and a game-high 1.6 RE24 for Boston. Aroldis Chapman was the decisive arm out of the bullpen, adding 15.2 percent WPA and securing the final three outs after Tyler O'Neill's lineout in the ninth represented a 16.6 percent swing in Baltimore's direction that Chapman ultimately neutralized. Garrett Whitlock contributed an additional 10.6 percent WPA to Boston's pitching effort, while Tyron Guerrero struggled for Baltimore, finishing at minus 7.6 percent WPA.