Miami Marlins at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros defeated the Miami Marlins 8-5 on July 20, 2026, at Daikin Park, turning what opened as an evenly matched contest into a comfortable home win. The DiamondIQ model's estimate entered the game at a 50 percent home win probability and closed at 100 percent, a swing driven almost entirely by a decisive second inning in which Houston scored six runs to seize control of the game.

The biggest single play of the night came in the bottom of the second, when Jeremy Peña connected on a home run off Janson Junk that shifted win probability by plus 18.8 percent in Houston's favor. That same inning also featured a Jose Altuve groundout into a double play that, by limiting further Miami momentum at a critical moment, added 7.6 percent to the Astros' win probability. Miami responded in the top of the fourth when Liam Hicks hit a home run off Ronel Blanco, a swing worth plus 12.4 percent for the Marlins, and Joe Mack had also gone deep in the top of the second off Blanco for plus 9.3 percent, keeping the Marlins nominally in contention before Houston's lead proved insurmountable. Yordan Alvarez added a home run off Lake Bachar in the bottom of the fifth for plus 8.1 percent, effectively closing the door.

Among individual performers, Peña finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 17.1 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.1, while Alvarez matched that RE24 figure and posted plus 13.2 percent WPA. Hicks led Miami's contributors at plus 11.4 percent WPA. On the pitching side, Enyel De Los Santos led all arms with plus 7.7 percent WPA, followed by Steven Okert at plus 5.0 percent and Bryan Abreu at plus 1.9 percent, with the Houston bullpen collectively preserving the three-run advantage through the final frames.