Minnesota Twins at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| CHC | 2 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 10 | 12 | 1 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs handed the Minnesota Twins a lopsided 10-1 defeat at Wrigley Field on July 19, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model saw coming from the outset, having installed the Cubs as 61% pre-game favorites before pushing that estimate to 100% by game's end. Chicago seized control early and never relented, plating two runs in the first, one in the second, and four more in the third to effectively put the game out of reach before the fourth inning concluded with three additional Cubs runs. Minnesota managed just a single run in the top of the eighth against the eventual 1-8-1 line, while the Cubs finished with 12 hits against eight for the Twins.
The decisive stretch came in the first three innings, where the game's most impactful plays unfolded in rapid succession. Alex Bregman's home run off Zebby Matthews in the bottom of the first registered a +4.1% win probability swing, setting the tone. Carson Kelly followed with a run-scoring single off Matthews in the second, adding another +4.7% shift. The biggest single moment of the night came in the bottom of the third when Nico Hoerner laced a triple off Matthews, a play that carried a +8.3% win probability added, the largest positive swing of the game. Minnesota's best chance to respond was snuffed out in the top of the third when Ryan Kreidler grounded into a double play against Shota Imanaga, a sequence that cost the Twins 7.2% in win probability and extinguished any realistic path back into the contest.
On the individual ledger, Hoerner led all batters with a +7.1% WPA and a +1.5 RE24, while Bregman posted a +5.7% WPA and an impressive +3.9 RE24, reflecting how often he came through in high-leverage run-environment situations. Ian Happ contributed +4.6% WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 figure of -0.7. On the mound, Shota Imanaga was the clear standout, generating a game-high +9.2% WPA, while Drew Pomeranz and Woo-Suk Go each finished at a flat 0.0% WPA in their relief appearances, preserving what was already a thoroughly decided outcome.