Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | - | 7 | 14 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Seattle Mariners 7-2 at Tropicana Field on July 10, 2026, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 64 percent pre-game home win probability and ultimately closed at 100 percent in Tampa Bay's favor. The Rays built their advantage methodically through the middle innings, with four home runs doing the bulk of the damage against Seattle starter Luis Castillo. Richie Palacios opened the scoring with a solo shot in the bottom of the fourth that shifted win probability 10.0 points in Tampa Bay's direction, and Cedric Mullins followed in the fifth with another home run off Castillo worth 11.3 points of win probability, the single largest swing of the game. The Rays finished with 14 hits against a Seattle pitching staff that struggled to keep runners off the bases throughout.
Seattle's lone moment of genuine relevance came in the top of the fifth, when Cole Young hit a home run off Nick Martinez that swung win probability 10.7 points toward the Mariners, trimming the deficit temporarily and representing the club's best chance to reenter the contest. That momentum was quickly neutralized by Tampa Bay's response, capped by a three-run seventh inning in which Junior Caminero added a home run off José A. Ferrer for a 9.8-point win-probability swing that effectively sealed the outcome. Caminero led all position players with a WPA of plus-12.4 and an RE24 of plus-1.8, while Chandler Simpson contributed a key fifth-inning single worth 9.3 points and finished with a WPA of plus-8.3. J.P. Crawford posted a WPA of plus-10.1 for Seattle in a losing effort.
On the pitching side, Garrett Cleavinger was the most impactful arm out of the Tampa Bay bullpen, contributing plus-7.2 WPA, while Eduard Bazardo added plus-3.3 WPA in relief. The Rays held Seattle to five hits and committed no errors, producing a clean and efficient performance that matched the pre-game advantage the DiamondIQ model had identified entering play.