Cleveland Guardians at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians held off the Miami Marlins 3-2 at loanDepot park on July 10, 2026, completing a road win that erased the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 57 percent home win probability for Miami down to zero. Cleveland scored all three of its runs in the fourth and fifth innings, with the Marlins unable to answer until the sixth and seventh, when they trimmed the deficit to one but could get no closer.

The decisive sequence began in the top of the fourth when Chase DeLauter connected on a home run off Sandy Alcantara, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 17.5 percent in Cleveland's favor. Miami answered in the seventh on a Leo Jiménez home run off Erik Sabrowski, a plus-15.6 percent swing that tightened the game, but Otto Lopez's groundout to end the inning, a minus-11.5 percent shift off Colin Holderman, cut short any further threat. The Marlins mounted their final push in the ninth, but Jakob Marsee's flyout off Cade Smith closed the door with the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus-31.6 percent, preserving the one-run lead.

Among position players, Marsee led all batters with a plus-38.1 percent WPA on the evening, while DeLauter posted a plus-14.8 percent WPA and a team-best plus-1.3 RE24. On the mound, Hunter Gaddis was the standout, generating a plus-23.3 percent WPA that included the critical Kyle Stowers strikeout in the eighth, a minus-16.5 percent swing against Miami. Parker Messick added plus-21.3 percent WPA, and Ryan Gusto contributed plus-11.0 percent as Cleveland's pitching staff collectively stifled a Marlins lineup that finished with four hits and no path to a comeback.