Houston Astros at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 7 | 1 |
| DET | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
The Story
The Houston Astros erased a deficit in extra innings to defeat the Detroit Tigers 7-5 at Comerica Park on June 28, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate gave the Tigers a 47% chance to prevent before first pitch. Detroit held the edge through nine innings, having taken a 2-0 lead on Zach McKinstry's second-inning home run off Hunter Brown, a swing worth 11.5 percentage points of win probability, and later extending to 3-0 on a fifth-inning run. Houston answered with Raynel Delgado's solo home run off Tyler Holton in the seventh, a 18.2-point WPA swing that began chipping away at Detroit's cushion, and Isaac Paredes followed with another solo shot off Kyle Finnegan in the eighth, a swing worth 18.6 points that knotted the game at three. The contest pushed to the tenth inning with the score level before Houston broke it open, scoring four runs against Kenley Jansen while Detroit managed only two in the bottom half to close out a 7-5 final.
The decisive sequence in the tenth centered almost entirely on Isaac Paredes, who delivered first with a single off Jansen that added 33.4 points of win probability, then watched Christian Walker follow with a home run worth 22.3 points to blow the game open. Paredes finished as the game's most impactful offensive player by a wide margin, accumulating plus-53.9 WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.1 across his two extra-base hits and the pivotal single. Walker contributed plus-21.5 WPA and plus-2.0 RE24, while Kevin McGonigle added a quieter but meaningful plus-12.3 WPA performance.
On the pitching side, Jack Flaherty was the most valuable arm for Houston, producing plus-22.8 WPA over his outing, with Bryan King adding plus-10.9 WPA in relief and Steven Okert contributing plus-4.8 WPA. Detroit's bullpen, beginning with Holton and extending through Finnegan and Jansen, allowed all four of Houston's extra-inning runs after holding the Astros scoreless for six frames. The DiamondIQ model's estimate moved from near-even territory before the game to zero percent for a Detroit win by the final out, a complete reversal driven largely by Paredes and Walker's back-to-back damage against a closer who entered the tenth holding what had been a tied game.