Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins blanked the St. Louis Cardinals 4-0 at Busch Stadium on June 26, 2026, completing a shutout that erased what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 55 percent pre-game home win probability for St. Louis down to zero by the final out. Miami managed all four of its runs in the final two innings, turning a scoreless stalemate into a decisive road victory on the strength of dominant pitching and a pivotal eighth-inning rally.

The game remained locked in a 0-0 tie deep into the contest, with the most damaging Cardinals moment coming in the bottom of the seventh when Nathan Church's lineout off Max Meyer cost St. Louis 11.6 percent in win probability, followed shortly by Masyn Winn's forceout that shed another 9.8 percent. Those squandered opportunities proved fatal. Miami broke through in the top of the eighth against George Soriano, with Xavier Edwards drawing a walk that added 10.6 percent in win probability before Graham Pauley delivered a double worth 12.0 percent, the single most impactful offensive play of the game. Pauley had been a net drag earlier, his fifth-inning strikeout off Michael McGreevy costing Miami 9.5 percent, making his eighth-inning contribution the decisive turn in his personal ledger.

Max Meyer was the clear standout of the evening, posting a game-high 39.6 percent WPA as he repeatedly suppressed the Cardinals lineup and held them to harmless outs in the seventh. Michael McGreevy contributed 27.0 percent WPA for St. Louis, keeping Miami scoreless through his portion of the game, while Michael Petersen added 13.3 percent in relief for Miami. Among position players, Esteury Ruiz led all batters with 11.6 percent WPA and a 1.0 RE24, while Edwards finished at 9.4 percent WPA. Miami scattered eight hits against three for St. Louis, committing no errors in a clean, efficiently executed road shutout.