Chicago Cubs at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Chicago Cubs defeated the New York Mets 9-6 at Citi Field on June 23, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 45 percent pre-game home win probability for New York to zero by the final out. The Cubs did the bulk of their damage early, scoring five runs in the second inning and two more in the fourth to build an advantage the Mets could never fully erase. New York managed three runs in the ninth but left the tying run stranded, capping a night in which their lone error compounded the damage done by their pitching staff.

The decisive turning point came in the second inning, when Pete Crow-Armstrong launched a home run off Kodai Senga, a swing the DiamondIQ model valued at a 9.8 percent win-probability swing for Chicago. Senga was further troubled in that frame when Alex Bregman struck out in a key spot, a plate appearance that carried an 8.0 percent win-probability value for the Cubs given the game situation. Dansby Swanson delivered the single most impactful blow of the night in the fourth, also off Senga, driving a home run that registered an 11.4 percent win-probability swing. On the other side, Bo Bichette's strikeout against Edward Cabrera in the bottom of the second represented a 9.0 percent drop in the Mets' fortunes, and Mark Vientos was retired on strikes by Jayden Murray in the ninth to close out a 6.3 percent swing that ended New York's rally.

Swanson finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a WPA of plus-11.3 percent and an RE24 of plus-2.5, while Crow-Armstrong posted the highest RE24 among position players at plus-3.0 alongside a plus-10.3 percent WPA. Carson Kelly also contributed meaningfully, adding plus-7.3 percent WPA and plus-1.9 RE24. Edward Cabrera led all pitchers with a plus-9.6 percent WPA, providing the Cubs' bullpen with its most stabilizing performance of the evening, with Hoby Milner and Cionel Pérez each adding smaller but positive contributions as Chicago held on for the road win.