Los Angeles Dodgers at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers held on to defeat the Minnesota Twins 2-1 at Target Field on June 22, 2026, in a tightly contested game that saw the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 38 percent home win probability collapse entirely to zero by the final out. The scoring was sparse and front-loaded, with each team exchanging a run in the first inning before the game settled into a prolonged stalemate. Freddie Freeman broke the deadlock for good with a home run off Zebby Matthews in the top of the sixth, a swing that shifted win probability 13.7 percent in Los Angeles's favor and proved to be the decisive blow of the afternoon.

The Twins mounted their most credible threat in the eighth inning, when Austin Martin singled off Kyle Hurt to move the needle 8.6 percent toward Minnesota, only for Josh Bell to line out two batters later, a sequence that swung 16.5 percent of win probability back toward the Dodgers and effectively extinguished the rally. The most dramatic moment came in the bottom of the ninth, when Brooks Lee grounded out against Tanner Scott to end the game, a play that registered a 31.6 percent win-probability swing and reflected just how much tension remained with the Twins still threatening. Lee finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 22.7 percent, though with a negative RE24 of minus 0.8, his value was situational rather than run-producing.

On the pitching side, Eric Lauer was the clear standout, posting a game-high plus 35.4 percent WPA to lead all pitchers, with Kyle Hurt contributing plus 23.3 percent in relief. Zebby Matthews headlined Minnesota's staff at plus 18.1 percent despite surrendering the Freeman home run, a testament to how effectively the Twins kept the Dodgers in check across nine innings despite generating just three hits as a team. Los Angeles finished with nine hits and committed no errors, executing cleanly in a low-margin game where each plate appearance carried outsized consequence.