Arizona Diamondbacks at St. Louis Cardinals: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 3-2 at Busch Stadium on June 22, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game at 59 percent in favor of the home side before finishing at 100 percent as St. Louis held on. The Cardinals built their margin early, with Nathan Church delivering the game's second-largest win-probability swing, a single off Merrill Kelly in the bottom of the fourth that added 9.5 percent to St. Louis's chances and pushed the home lead to two runs. Arizona had opportunities to claw back, but momentum-killing at-bats defined their offensive night, most notably Geraldo Perdomo's forceout off Andre Pallante in the third, which subtracted 8.0 percent from Arizona's win probability, and Ketel Marte's fielders choice out in the fifth, which cost the Diamondbacks another 7.8 percent.

Tommy Troy provided the sharpest single swing of the evening, a home run off Ryne Stanek in the top of the seventh that represented a 12.7 percent positive shift for Arizona and briefly tightened the game to 3-2. Tim Tawa's double off Pallante in the fifth, adding 8.7 percent, had similarly kept Arizona within reach, but the Cardinals bullpen ultimately smothered both threats. Among position players, Nathan Church led all batters with a WPA of plus 10.9 percent and an RE24 of plus 1.3, while Alec Burleson contributed plus 9.3 percent WPA and the game's best RE24 among hitters at plus 1.8, and Masyn Winn added plus 6.3 percent WPA. On the mound, Riley O'Brien was the most impactful arm by the DiamondIQ model's measure at plus 15.2 percent WPA, followed by Andre Pallante at plus 13.2 percent and JoJo Romero at plus 12.6 percent, the trio collectively closing the door on an Arizona lineup that finished with eight hits but could not convert them into enough runs.