New York Mets at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets handed the Cincinnati Reds a decisive 9-1 defeat at Great American Ball Park on June 17, 2026, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 57 percent pre-game home win probability for Cincinnati down to zero by the final out. New York collected 15 hits against just five for the Reds, committing two errors to Cincinnati's one, and did the bulk of their damage in concentrated bursts in the third and fifth innings.

The third inning proved to be the pivotal sequence of the game, producing three of the four largest win-probability swings of the night against starter Nick Lodolo. Mark Vientos opened the damage with a single that shifted win probability 10.8 percent in the Mets' favor, Juan Soto followed with a single worth another 9.0 percent, and Marcus Semien added a single of his own for an 8.1 percent swing, collectively dismantling whatever early footing the Reds had hoped to establish. Cincinnati's lone response came at the bottom of the third, when Matt McLain doubled off Mets pitcher Nolan McLean to generate an 8.5 percent swing toward the home side, accounting for the Reds' solitary run. New York then extended the lead further in the fifth when A.J. Ewing doubled off Lodolo for a 7.6 percent shift, capping a four-run frame that effectively ended any competitive tension.

Among individual performers, Marcus Semien led all batters with a plus-15.2 percent WPA and a plus-1.3 RE24, while Juan Soto was close behind at plus-11.1 percent WPA and a team-best plus-1.4 RE24. Vientos contributed plus-8.7 percent WPA despite a slightly negative RE24 of minus-0.1, reflecting his role in sequences where run-expectancy context was less favorable. On the pitching side, Nolan McLean was the top contributor by WPA at plus-13.4 percent, with Chris Paddack and Austin Warren providing negligible but positive additions in relief as New York closed out a thorough road victory.