Tampa Bay Rays at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 4-1 at loanDepot park on June 7, 2026, in a game that was far more decisive than the modest run total suggests. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Miami only a 41% chance of winning at home, but the Marlins steadily seized control before reaching 100% certainty by the final out. Tampa Bay managed to scratch across its lone run in the third inning on a Yandy Diaz single off Sandy Alcantara, a hit that added 10.7% in win probability and briefly gave the road side some life. That advantage was short-lived, however, as Junior Caminero grounded into a double play in the fourth against Alcantara, erasing 7.6% in win probability and stalling whatever momentum Tampa Bay had built.

The game turned decisively in the sixth inning when Otto Lopez ripped a triple off Garrett Cleavinger, a swing worth plus 21.1% in win probability and the single biggest play of the contest. Miami added two more runs in the seventh when Joe Mack reached on a fielder's choice off Steven Matz, contributing another 15.9% positive swing. Tampa Bay's best chance to answer came and went in the top of the seventh, when Victor Mesa Jr. hit into a strikeout double play against Alcantara, costing the Rays 13.2% in win probability and effectively closing the door on any comeback.

On the individual ledger, Otto Lopez led all batters with a WPA of plus 18.6% and a RE24 of plus 1.7, while Joe Mack and Kyle Stowers added plus 10.6% and plus 7.0% respectively. Sandy Alcantara was the story on the mound, posting a plus 28.8% WPA to lead all pitchers, with Griffin Jax adding plus 18.9% in relief. The DiamondIQ model favors the Marlins' pitching performance as the central factor in the outcome, with Alcantara in particular neutralizing Tampa Bay's lineup at its most dangerous moments.