Boston Red Sox at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox handed the Cleveland Guardians a 9-1 defeat at Progressive Field on May 30, 2026, a result that erased what the DiamondIQ model had estimated as a 68 percent pre-game home win probability for Cleveland and reduced it to zero by the final out. Boston spread its nine runs across four scoring innings, with a six-run ninth inning closing out what had been a methodical, low-scoring affair through the first eight frames. Cleveland's four errors proved costly alongside a Boston offense that collected 11 hits and committed none of its own.

The game's single largest win-probability swing came in the bottom of the seventh, when José Ramírez grounded out against Justin Slaten in a moment that shifted Cleveland's win probability down by 11.5 percentage points, effectively extinguishing the Guardians' last meaningful threat. On the offensive side, Connor Wong's double off Matt Festa in the top of the sixth added 11.3 percentage points for Boston, and Caleb Durbin followed with a double off Shawn Armstrong in the eighth worth 10.7 points. Ceddanne Rafaela's double against Parker Messick in the third inning contributed an 8.9-point swing, though Nick Sogard's groundout in the same frame pulled 8.4 points back toward Cleveland.

Durbin led all batters with a WPA of plus-13.6 and an RE24 of plus-0.7, while Rafaela posted plus-9.2 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 and Marcelo Mayer contributed plus-8.5 WPA alongside a team-best plus-1.4 RE24. On the mound, Sonny Gray was the dominant force, credited with plus-30.1 WPA, with Slaten adding plus-17.9 and Codi Heuer contributing plus-8.0 in support to complete the lopsided final.