Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

Baltimore rallied for five runs in the bottom of the ninth inning to stun Toronto, 6-5, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on May 30, 2026. The Blue Jays had carried a 5-1 lead into the final frame after Kazuma Okamoto's two-run double off Keegan Akin in the top of the eighth added two critical insurance runs, a swing that the DiamondIQ model registered as the biggest Toronto play of the night at plus 21.2 percent win probability. Baltimore had managed just a single run through eight innings, scoring once in the third, and the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 51 percent home win probability had collapsed well in Toronto's favor heading into the ninth.

The Orioles' comeback began with Jeff Hoffman on the mound and unraveled quickly for the Blue Jays. Gunnar Henderson drew a walk from Hoffman that the DiamondIQ model valued at plus 22.8 percent win probability, and Colton Cowser followed with a double worth plus 16.2 percent. Earlier in the ninth, Adley Rutschman had drawn a walk off Connor Seabold that registered as the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 31.1 percent, ultimately capping Baltimore's most impactful sequence of the night. By the time the inning concluded, the DiamondIQ model's estimate had moved to 100 percent in Baltimore's favor.

Rutschman finished as the game's top performer by win probability added, posting plus 34.2 percent WPA and plus 1.5 RE24, while Henderson contributed plus 24.7 percent WPA and plus 1.0 RE24 in his own right. On the pitching side, Trey Yesavage led all hurlers at plus 12.0 percent WPA, aided in the fourth inning when Jeremiah Jackson grounded into a double play against him, a sequence that cost Baltimore minus 18.1 percent win probability and briefly stalled what had been a promising Orioles threat. Tyler Rogers and Yariel Rodriguez each contributed positive WPA outings in support of Baltimore's pitching effort through the middle innings.