MLB Recap · May 25, 2026

Tampa Bay Rays at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

TB7
Final
BAL9

Line Score

Team12345678910111213RHE
TB00000101002127124
BAL00000020002149121

The Story

The Baltimore Orioles overcame a deficit that stretched into extra innings to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays 9-7 in 13 innings on May 25, 2026, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards. The DiamondIQ model's estimate had Baltimore entering the game as a significant underdog at just 32 percent, but the Orioles methodically clawed their way back, ultimately swinging that probability to 100 percent by the final out. Both teams went scoreless through five innings before the Rays scratched across their first run in the sixth, and the game remained close through 10 innings before the contest truly broke open in the late extra frames.

The decisive turning point came in the top of the 11th, when Victor Mesa Jr. connected on a home run off Tyler Wells, a swing that shifted win probability by 51.7 percent in Tampa Bay's favor and gave the Rays a lead that appeared potentially decisive. Baltimore responded immediately in the bottom of the 11th, with Jeremiah Jackson delivering a single off Ian Seymour that added 44.1 percent to the Orioles' win probability and helped level the game again. The 13th inning settled the outcome conclusively: Richie Palacios singled off Dietrich Enns to extend Tampa Bay's advantage by 32.0 percent, but Baltimore answered with a dominant bottom half, highlighted by Blaze Alexander's walk-off single off Jesse Scholtens that contributed 45.5 percent to Baltimore's win probability, and a Colton Cowser home run off the same pitcher that added another 29.4 percent.

On the individual side, Blaze Alexander finished as the game's most impactful offensive performer, accumulating 55.8 percent in WPA and a RE24 of plus-2.3, while Oliver Dunn posted 46.3 percent WPA and Leody Taveras contributed 40.6 percent WPA alongside a RE24 of plus-1.9. Kyle Bradish led Baltimore's pitching staff with 23.6 percent WPA, with Rico Garcia and Shane McClanahan each adding positive contributions on the mound. The final line told a chaotic story, with each team collecting 12 hits but Tampa Bay committing four errors compared to Baltimore's one, a disparity that ultimately proved costly across a grueling 13-inning contest.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TB bats firstFinalBAL win %TB win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 32% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Victor Mesa Jr. Home Run
Top 11th · off Tyler Wells
+51.7%
Blaze Alexander Single
Bot 13th · off Jesse Scholtens
+45.5%
Jeremiah Jackson Single
Bot 11th · off Ian Seymour
+44.1%
Richie Palacios Single
Top 13th · off Dietrich Enns
+32.0%
Colton Cowser Home Run
Bot 13th · off Jesse Scholtens
+29.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Blaze Alexander+55.8%+2.3 RE24
Oliver Dunn+46.3%+0.9 RE24
Leody Taveras+40.6%+1.9 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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