Los Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 1-0 on May 18, 2026, at Petco Park, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 55 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The lone run, scored in the first inning, proved to be all San Diego needed as Michael King and Mason Miller combined to suffocate a Dodgers offense that finished with five hits and no errors but could not push anything across the plate.

The game's most consequential sequence unfolded in the top of the ninth, where Los Angeles mounted its final push against Mason Miller. Kyle Tucker drew a walk that swung win probability 15.2 percent in the Dodgers' favor, briefly making the outcome feel uncertain. But Miller immediately answered, retiring Will Smith on a flyout that erased 14.6 percent of that gain, then dispatching Andy Pages on a forceout (-13.5%) and striking out Max Muncy (-12.8%) to slam the door. Earlier, in the sixth inning, Teoscar Hernandez grounded into a double play off King that cost Los Angeles 11.3 percent in win probability, snuffing out what had been a modest scoring opportunity.

Michael King was the game's dominant individual force, contributing 38.2 percent WPA across his outing, while Yoshinobu Yamamoto added 24.5 percent WPA in a strong start that kept San Diego's one-run cushion intact for as long as he worked. On the offensive side, Freddie Freeman led Dodgers batters with a 10.9 percent WPA despite a negative RE24 of -0.3, and Shohei Ohtani posted 9.1 percent WPA alongside a positive RE24 of +0.4, indicating he reached base in favorable situations that the lineup could not convert. The Padres' pitching staff held firm throughout, turning a first-inning run into a complete and methodical victory.