Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 11 | 1 |
| TB | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 6 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Miami Marlins 3-6 at Tropicana Field on May 17, 2026, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate had strongly anticipated, opening the game with a 74% home win probability that climbed to 100% by the final out. Tampa Bay scored in five of nine innings, building their lead incrementally after Miami grabbed a brief 2-0 advantage in the top of the third. The Rays' response was swift and decisive, answering with three runs in the bottom of the fourth to reclaim control and never surrender it.
The pivotal moment of the game came in the bottom of the fourth when Taylor Walls ripped a triple off Marlins starter Eury Pérez, a hit that shifted win probability by 27.1 percentage points and effectively flipped the complexion of the contest. That single at-bat defined the game's turning point, and Walls finished as the top performer by WPA, finishing with a plus-21.6% mark and a RE24 of plus-2.6, reflecting the tangible run-scoring impact of his performance. Miami threatened in spots, most notably when Xavier Edwards singled in the third for a plus-10.4% WP swing and Connor Norby doubled in the eighth for plus-10.3%, but Otto Lopez grounded into a double play in the top of the fifth, costing Miami 11.2 percentage points of win probability and extinguishing a potential rally against Drew Rasmussen.
On the mound, Ian Seymour was the standout, posting a plus-19.1% WPA to lead all pitchers. He closed the door in the eighth, recording a key strikeout of Leo Jiménez that erased 9.9 percentage points of Marlins win probability and ended Miami's most credible late threat. Kevin Kelly contributed plus-9.5% WPA in relief, and Bryan Baker added plus-2.4%. Despite Miami's 11 hits compared to Tampa Bay's 7, the Rays committed no errors and converted their opportunities at the most consequential moments, finishing off a clean, disciplined victory.