Miami Marlins at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins erased a 73 percent pre-game home win probability for Tampa Bay and pulled away for a 10-5 victory at Tropicana Field on May 16, 2026, with the decisive damage concentrated in an eight-run tenth inning that turned a one-run deficit into a comfortable final margin. The Rays held the edge through the first six frames before Heriberto Hernández gave Miami its first lead with a home run off Garrett Cleavinger in the seventh, a swing that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 15.8 percentage points in the Marlins' favor. The game remained tight heading into the final innings, with both clubs scratching across a run in the ninth, but two plays in particular redefined the contest before extras even began.

Javier Sanoja's double off Bryan Baker in the top of the ninth was the single most impactful at-bat of the night, generating a 40.5 percentage point swing in win probability and setting the stage for Miami to draw even. Tampa Bay answered in the bottom half when Nick Fortes delivered a single off Pete Fairbanks that swung win probability 39.4 points back toward the Rays, keeping the game tied and forcing extra innings. When the tenth arrived, the Marlins buried the Rays with eight runs, anchored by Joe Mack's single off Hunter Bigge, which moved the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 32.0 percentage points, and a follow-up single from Liam Hicks off the same pitcher that added another 22.7 points.

Sanoja finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-36.6 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Fortes contributed plus-35.7 percent WPA despite appearing in a losing effort on the probability ledger. Mack's late surge earned him a plus-24.5 percent WPA mark. On the pitching side, Sandy Alcantara led Marlins starters and relievers alike with a plus-25.3 percent WPA, supported by Nick Martinez at plus-18.2 percent and Anthony Bender at plus-10.9 percent as Miami completed its comeback from a heavy pre-game underdog position.