Detroit Tigers at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Detroit Tigers 10-2 at Citi Field on May 12, 2026, in a game that was far closer on paper entering first pitch than it appeared by the final out. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with a 48 percent home win probability, but that figure climbed steadily toward its eventual ceiling of 100 percent as the Mets built an insurmountable advantage through a series of methodical, run-productive innings. New York scored in six of nine frames, surrendering just two runs on ten hits while committing no errors against a Tigers side that finished with two errors of their own.

The decisive swing in win probability came in the bottom of the sixth, when Bo Bichette recorded a fielders choice off Burch Smith that added 10.9 percent to New York's win probability, the single largest play of the contest by that measure. Bichette finished as the game's most impactful offensive contributor with a cumulative WPA of plus-13.0 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.3. The groundwork, however, was laid earlier: Carson Benge's single off Jack Flaherty in the bottom of the fourth added 9.5 percent, Mark Vientos connected for a single off Flaherty in the third worth 7.8 percent, and A.J. Ewing drew a walk off Flaherty in the second that swung the model 6.7 percent toward New York. Ewing ultimately posted a WPA of plus-8.5 percent and led all position players with a RE24 of plus-3.2. The lone significant Detroit moment arrived in the top of the seventh, when Kevin McGonigle's double off Brooks Raley added 6.8 percent from the Tigers' perspective, though it produced no lasting dent in the outcome.

On the mound, Freddy Peralta was the most dominant force in the game by WPA, finishing with a mark of plus-15.2 percent, the highest of any pitcher on either side. Tyler Holton contributed plus-7.3 percent in relief, and Brooks Raley added plus-2.9 percent despite yielding McGonigle's double. Detroit's pitching staff, led by Jack Flaherty, absorbed the bulk of the damage, as New York accumulated thirteen hits and ten runs against a rotation and bullpen that could not suppress the Mets' lineup when it mattered most.