Baltimore Orioles at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins walked off with a 4-3 victory over the Baltimore Orioles on May 7, 2026, at loanDepot park, with a ninth-inning fielding error proving to be the decisive moment in a tightly contested affair. Miami took an early two-run lead in the first inning and held a 3-1 advantage heading into the eighth, when Baltimore showed signs of life. Pete Alonso's single off Josh Ekness in the top of the eighth carried a win-probability swing of plus-18.0 percent for the Orioles, momentarily tightening the game, but Samuel Basallo grounded into a double play in the same frame, costing Baltimore 13.4 percentage points of win probability and extinguishing the rally before it could fully develop.

The evening ultimately turned on a single play in the bottom of the ninth. With the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Miami victory sitting in decisive territory, Javier Sanoja reached on a fielding error charged to Andrew Kittredge, a sequence that swung win probability 37.9 points in the Marlins' favor and ended the game. Sanoja was the clear standout by the numbers, finishing with a plus-36.2 percent WPA and plus-0.8 RE24, while Otto Lopez and Joe Mack contributed supporting figures of plus-8.6 and plus-8.0 percent WPA respectively. On the pitching side, Calvin Faucher led Miami's relievers with a plus-13.5 percent WPA contribution, followed by Keegan Akin at plus-10.9 percent. The DiamondIQ model had opened the night with Miami at 54 percent and closed it at 100 percent, a trajectory shaped almost entirely by that final error rather than any dominant stretch of play from either side.