Toronto Blue Jays at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 3-0 on May 6, 2026 at Tropicana Field, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a 75 percent pre-game home win probability, which climbed to 100 percent by the final out. Tampa Bay's pitching staff kept Toronto off the scoreboard entirely, limiting the Blue Jays to just four hits and one error on the afternoon while the Rays posted six hits of their own in a clean, efficient victory.

The decisive moment of the game came in the bottom of the fourth inning, when Jonny DeLuca delivered a double off Patrick Corbin that shifted win probability by plus 12.9 percent in Tampa Bay's favor, the single largest swing of the contest. Chandler Simpson followed with a run-scoring single off Corbin, adding another plus 8.9 percent to Tampa Bay's win probability and extending the Rays' advantage to two runs. Those two plays off Corbin effectively buried Toronto's hopes, as the Blue Jays were unable to generate any sustained offensive response. An eighth-inning run pushed the final margin to three.

Among individual performers, DeLuca finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 10.0 percent with a plus 0.8 RE24, while Myles Straw contributed plus 8.1 percent WPA and Simpson added plus 6.3 percent. On the mound, Shane McClanahan led all pitchers with a plus 12.5 percent WPA, with Patrick Corbin and Bryan Baker also posting positive figures despite Corbin absorbing the damage in the fourth. The DiamondIQ model's estimate favored Tampa Bay from the opening pitch, and the Rays delivered a textbook low-run outcome that validated that projection.