Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Philadelphia Phillies routed the Miami Marlins 7-2 at loanDepot park on May 3, 2026, seizing control of the game almost immediately and never relinquishing it. The DiamondIQ model entered the night giving Miami a 60 percent chance of winning at home, but that figure collapsed to zero by game's end, reflecting just how thoroughly Philadelphia dominated from the opening frame. Six of Philadelphia's seven runs came in the first inning alone, effectively ending the contest before Miami could establish any foothold.

The decisive swing in the game's probability came through a combination of Miami's early failures and Philadelphia's efficient first-inning damage. The biggest individual win-probability shift of the night was Javier Sanoja's flyout in the bottom of the second, which cost Miami 14.6 percent in win probability as the Marlins failed to generate any response to the mounting deficit. Connor Norby's strikeout in the bottom of the first was nearly as damaging at minus 13.5 percent, as early outs against Jesús Luzardo extinguished any hope of an immediate Marlins answer. On the Philadelphia side, Justin Crawford's lineout in the top of the first added 12.7 percent win probability in a first inning that proved catastrophic for Miami starter Chris Paddack, while Alec Bohm's lineout in the second added another 12.6 percent.

Luzardo was the standout performer of the evening by a wide margin, contributing plus 30.3 percent in win probability for Philadelphia while limiting the Marlins to their two runs across what the data shows was a dominant outing. Crawford finished as Philadelphia's top offensive contributor with plus 15.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 0.4, while Bohm added plus 12.4 percent WPA and led Philadelphia's offensive performers with a RE24 of plus 0.8. Miami's lone late bright spot was a two-run seventh inning, but the deficit was far too steep for any meaningful recovery.