Kansas City Royals at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| SEA | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals took down the Seattle Mariners 3-2 in ten innings at T-Mobile Park on May 2, 2026, completing a comeback that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win at exactly 0%. Seattle had entered the game as a 59% favorite by that same pre-game estimate, and the Mariners held a 2-1 lead heading into the ninth, only to watch the game slip away in the final two frames.
The decisive sequence began in the top of the ninth against Andrés Muñoz, when Jac Caglianone delivered a single that swung win probability by 45.8 percentage points in Kansas City's favor, the single largest play of the game by that measure. The blow tied or altered the complexion of the contest dramatically, though Isaac Collins followed with a groundout that pushed probability back toward Seattle by 18.8 points, briefly keeping the Mariners in control. The Royals pushed across the go-ahead run in the top of the tenth, and Bobby Witt Jr. contributed a groundout that added 23.1 percentage points to Kansas City's chances in that frame. When J.P. Crawford grounded out to end the bottom of the tenth off Lucas Erceg, it represented a 31.6-point swing for the Royals' ledger, closing the door on any Seattle rally.
On the pitching side, Emerson Hancock led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-25.7, while Eduard Bazardo and Seth Lugo added plus-10.8 and plus-9.9 respectively in support. Caglianone finished as the top batter by WPA at plus-39.8 with a RE24 of plus-0.9, with Crawford posting plus-27.5 WPA despite a negative RE24 of minus-1.0, reflecting the context-dependent nature of his contributions. Kansas City finished with eight hits and no errors, while Seattle committed one error across their eight hits in a game that was far closer than the final outcome suggested until the Royals seized it late.