MLB Recap · May 1, 2026

Arizona Diamondbacks at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

AZ5
Final
CHC6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
AZ0010040005110
CHC30030000-681

The Story

The Chicago Cubs held off the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-5 at Wrigley Field on May 1, 2026, in a game that swung dramatically in the late innings. The Cubs built their margin early, scoring three runs in the first inning and three more in the fourth to take a 6-0 lead, but Arizona mounted a significant comeback, plating one in the third and then erupting for four runs in the sixth. That sixth-inning rally was headlined by a Geraldo Perdomo home run off Ryan Rolison, the single most impactful offensive play of the game at plus-22.0 percent win probability, trimming the deficit to 6-5 and shifting the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Cubs win down from what had been a comfortable cushion.

The final chapter was written by the Cubs bullpen, particularly Jacob Webb, who handled a tense ninth inning against the heart of the Arizona order. Ildemaro Vargas drew a walk that carried a plus-10.6 percent win-probability swing, representing the Diamondbacks' best threat to tie or take the lead, but Webb responded by striking out Corbin Carroll at minus-10.1 percent for Arizona and inducing a Ketel Marte forceout at minus-8.9 percent to end the game. Webb finished as the top pitcher in win probability added at plus-25.9 percent, making him the clearest difference-maker on the mound. Dansby Swanson contributed a pivotal groundout in the eighth off Kevin Ginkel that added plus-7.8 percent for Chicago, helping the Cubs protect their one-run lead.

Ildemaro Vargas led all batters with a plus-21.2 percent WPA and a plus-1.7 RE24, driven largely by that ninth-inning walk that kept Arizona's faint rally alive momentarily. Perdomo posted the top RE24 of the game at plus-2.2 alongside his plus-16.8 percent WPA, reflecting how consequential his home run was in making the contest close. Swanson added plus-13.7 percent WPA for the Cubs. The DiamondIQ model opened with Chicago as a 65 percent favorite and closed at 100 percent after Webb secured the final out, a trajectory that underscored how well the Cubs managed to absorb Arizona's late charge and hold on for the one-run victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025AZ bats firstFinalCHC win %AZ win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 64.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Geraldo Perdomo Home Run
Top 6th · off Ryan Rolison
+22.0%
Top 9th · off Jacob Webb
+10.6%
Corbin Carroll Strikeout
Top 9th · off Jacob Webb
-10.1%
Ketel Marte Forceout
Top 9th · off Jacob Webb
-8.9%
Dansby Swanson Groundout
Bot 8th · off Kevin Ginkel
+7.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Ildemaro Vargas+21.2%+1.7 RE24
Geraldo Perdomo+16.8%+2.2 RE24
Dansby Swanson+13.7%+0.8 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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