The Miami Marlins handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 3-2 defeat at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium on April 29, 2026, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate that placed the Dodgers' win probability at 69 percent. Miami scored in the second, fifth, and eighth innings while holding Los Angeles to single runs in the second and sixth, ultimately silencing the home side entirely over the final three frames.
The decisive sequence arrived in the top of the eighth when Javier Sanoja singled off Will Klein, a hit the DiamondIQ model measured as the single most impactful offensive play of the game at plus 18.3 percent win probability. That run gave Miami the lead it would not relinquish. Los Angeles mounted its most serious threat in the bottom of the ninth against Calvin Faucher, with Alex Call drawing a walk that shifted win probability 17.5 percent toward the Dodgers and Hyeseong Kim following with another walk worth 12.3 percent, loading the bases with one out. But Freddie Freeman grounded into a double play, a swing of minus 16.3 percent that ended the rally and the game. The bottom of the eighth had similarly stalled when Miguel Rojas grounded out against John King, a minus 12.9 percent moment that extinguished an earlier Los Angeles opportunity.
Among individual performers, Alex Call led all batters with a plus 20.7 percent WPA and a 1.2 RE24, his contributions anchoring the late-game pressure that defined the ninth inning. Sanoja posted a plus 12.3 percent WPA while Xavier Edwards added plus 10.7 percent. On the pitching side, John King was the model's top-valued arm at plus 23.3 percent WPA, followed by starter Sandy Alcantara at plus 16.9 percent and Andrew Nardi at plus 8.3 percent. The DiamondIQ model favors Miami's bullpen work as the structural reason a heavy Dodgers favorite left the field without a win.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.