The Los Angeles Dodgers walked off the Miami Marlins 5-4 on April 27, 2026, at UNIQLO Field at Dodger Stadium, rallying in the bottom of the ninth to secure a victory the DiamondIQ model had favored from the start, with a pre-game home win probability of 76 percent that climbed to 100 percent by the final out.
The game's defining sequence unfolded in the bottom of the ninth, where Kyle Tucker delivered a walk-off single off Tyler Phillips that swung win probability by plus-80.0 percent, the single largest play of the game. Tucker finished as the top performer by WPA at plus-69.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.1. The rally was set up by Shohei Ohtani, whose double off Pete Fairbanks added 25.9 percentage points of win probability and gave the Dodgers life after a tense stretch of the inning. Will Smith's strikeout against Phillips had momentarily deflated the home side by 26.9 points, making Tucker's subsequent single all the more consequential. For the Marlins, Liam Hicks was their most impactful bat, launching a home run off Yoshinobu Yamamoto in the top of the fifth that swung win probability by 33.1 percent in Miami's favor and keyed a three-run fifth inning that gave the visitors a 4-2 lead entering the middle innings.
On the mound, Calvin Faucher led Dodgers relievers by WPA at plus-13.3 percent, followed by Michael Petersen at plus-11.8 percent and Chris Paddack at plus-10.6 percent, a collective bullpen effort that kept the deficit manageable long enough for the offense to complete the comeback. Miami finished with six hits and no errors while Los Angeles posted eight hits against one error, and after a scoreless middle stretch from the sixth through eighth innings, the Dodgers manufactured the three runs they needed in the ninth to close it out.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.