The Boston Red Sox handed the Baltimore Orioles a 5-3 defeat at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 26, 2026, overcoming the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 61 percent home win probability for Baltimore. The game remained scoreless through four innings before a decisive fifth inning shifted the contest dramatically. Willson Contreras delivered the defining blow, a home run off Kyle Bradish that added 21.1 percent to Boston's win probability, and Andruw Monasterio's single in the same frame contributed an additional 10.3 percent swing. Baltimore responded with a Samuel Basallo home run off Connelly Early in the bottom of the fifth, a hit that added 10.6 percent to the Orioles' win probability and kept the game within reach. Boston extended its lead with a two-run sixth, highlighted by a Ceddanne Rafaela triple off Grant Wolfram that swung win probability another 12.6 percent in the Red Sox's favor. Baltimore added a run in the eighth but could not close the gap further.
The final out of the game encapsulated Boston's dominance on the night: Aroldis Chapman retired Samuel Basallo on a strikeout in the bottom of the ninth, a moment that added 14.4 percent to Boston's win probability as it sealed the result. Basallo nonetheless finished as Baltimore's most impactful offensive performer, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-25.0 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.0 across his plate appearances. For Boston, Contreras led all batters with a WPA of plus-22.6 percent and an RE24 of plus-1.6, while Gunnar Henderson contributed plus-13.3 percent WPA and an RE24 of plus-1.5. On the mound, Connelly Early was Baltimore's top pitcher by WPA at plus-20.5 percent despite surrendering the key runs, while Yennier Cano and Anthony Nunez each added modest positive contributions at plus-2.2 and plus-2.1 percent respectively. Boston finished the game with seven hits and no errors, while Baltimore committed one error across its six hits.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.