The Boston Red Sox dismantled the Baltimore Orioles 17-1 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on April 25, 2026, in one of the most lopsided results of the early season. The DiamondIQ model had opened with Baltimore holding a 65% pre-game win probability, but that figure collapsed to 0% by the final out as Boston battered Orioles pitching for 17 runs on 17 hits while Baltimore committed three errors. The Red Sox did their most significant damage in the second, fifth, and ninth innings, scoring three, three, and ten runs respectively to turn a competitive game into a rout.
The decisive swing in win probability came in the bottom of the second, when Jeremiah Jackson's lineout off Garrett Crochet represented a negative 11.6% shift in Baltimore's favor that the Orioles were ultimately unable to build upon. Boston answered immediately, with Wilyer Abreu's lineout in the top of the second carrying a positive 7.6% win-probability swing for the visitors, followed by Ceddanne Rafaela's single off Trevor Rogers adding another 5.2%. Connor Wong's double off Albert Suárez in the top of the fifth contributed an 8.8% boost and proved to be another momentum-shifting moment for Boston's offense. Gunnar Henderson's strikeout off Crochet in the bottom of the third represented a 4.4% drain on Baltimore's dwindling chances.
Garrett Crochet was the standout performer of the evening by a wide margin, posting a 29.2% win-probability added on the mound and holding Baltimore's lineup in check through the bulk of the contest. Among position players, Connor Wong led all batters with a 12.6% WPA and a plus-2.7 RE24, while Wilyer Abreu contributed 10.2% WPA and Ceddanne Rafaela added 9.3% WPA alongside a plus-2.7 RE24 of his own. Baltimore's six hits and three errors offered little resistance against a Boston club that the DiamondIQ model would have strongly favored in hindsight from the earliest innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.