The Seattle Mariners took a 3-2 decision over the St. Louis Cardinals at Busch Stadium on April 24, 2026, overcoming a pregame DiamondIQ model estimate that gave the home side a 65 percent chance of winning. Seattle scored single runs in the second, fourth, and sixth innings while St. Louis managed a two-run fourth but could not add to it, finishing with eight hits against only four for the visitors. The Cardinals left enough on the base paths to make it uncomfortable, but Seattle's bullpen ultimately slammed the door.
The swing moments of the game were stark and decisive. In the bottom of the fourth, Masyn Winn singled off George Kirby to shift the win probability 17.5 percent in St. Louis's favor, and the Cardinals converted that momentum into two runs to briefly take the lead. Josh Naylor answered with a solo home run off Andre Pallante in the top of the sixth, a swing worth 13.7 percent in Seattle's direction that put the Mariners back on top 3-2. The pivotal sequence came in the bottom of the eighth, when Eduard Bazardo induced Jordan Walker into a double play that erased a Cardinals threat and swung win probability 27.3 percent toward Seattle. Andrés Muñoz closed things out in the ninth by striking out Ramón Urías with the tying run aboard, a strikeout that shifted the model's estimate 27.0 percent in Seattle's favor and sealed the win.
Among individual performers, Bazardo led all pitchers with a WPA of plus-27.3 percent for his double-play induction, while Matt Brash added plus-16.4 percent and Gordon Graceffo contributed plus-11.0 percent to anchor the middle innings. Naylor paced Seattle's offense with a WPA of plus-16.7 percent and a RE24 of plus-0.9. On the Cardinals side, Winn finished with a WPA of plus-15.6 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.5, providing St. Louis its best offensive moment, but it proved insufficient as the Mariners held on for the road victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.