The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Miami Marlins 5-3 at loanDepot park on April 21, 2026, handing Miami a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate had anticipated, given the Cardinals entered with a 61 percent pre-game win probability. St. Louis built its advantage methodically through the middle innings, with the decisive blow coming in the top of the fourth when Nathan Church drove a home run off Chris Paddack, a swing that shifted win probability by 15.7 percentage points in the Cardinals' favor. Alec Burleson had also contributed earlier in the top of the third with a fielder's choice off Paddack that added 9.2 percentage points, helping St. Louis extend its lead to 4-1 through four innings.
Miami's most threatening sequence came in the bottom of the ninth, when Jakob Marsee singled off Riley O'Brien to generate a 7.8-point swing and briefly narrowed the Cardinals' path to the final out. The Marlins ultimately stranded the rally, and a Xavier Edwards lineout to close the inning registered as the game's second-largest single play by win probability, reflecting how much pressure Miami had placed on St. Louis late. Earlier, Otto Lopez's lineout in the bottom of the third off Dustin May had cost Miami 10.2 percentage points in win probability, snuffing a potential threat and standing as the most damaging moment of the night for the home club.
On the mound, Dustin May led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 10.4, and Justin Bruihl added 9.1 percentage points out of the bullpen to help close out the Cardinals' advantage. Offensively, Burleson finished as the top contributor by RE24 at plus 1.8, while Church posted plus 1.0 and a WPA of plus 13.1. St. Louis finished with 10 hits and one error to Miami's eight hits and clean fielding, a margin that reflected a Cardinals performance the DiamondIQ model found largely in line with its pre-game expectations.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.