The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Houston Astros 8-5 at Progressive Field on April 21, 2026, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked from a 73% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% at final. Cleveland managed just two runs through the first two innings and went quiet in the middle frames, allowing Houston to take over in the fifth when Yordan Alvarez delivered a single off Parker Messick that swung win probability 15.4 points in the Astros' favor and keyed a three-run frame. The Guardians answered with a run in the seventh, though Kyle Manzardo's groundout into a double play off Kai-Wei Teng in that same inning proved the most damaging swing against Cleveland, costing the home side 14.0 percentage points of win probability and leaving the door open heading into the eighth.
That eighth inning is where the game was decided in decisive fashion. Chase DeLauter led off with a triple off Bryan King that added 32.1 points of win probability, the single largest swing of the night, and immediately reshaped the contest. Steven Kwan then drew a walk off King worth 16.5 points, and Brayan Rocchio followed with a single off Enyel De Los Santos that added another 19.6 points, capping a six-run inning that put Cleveland ahead for good. DeLauter finished as the game's most impactful bat with a cumulative WPA of plus 28.7 and a RE24 of plus 1.3, while Kwan contributed plus 15.5 WPA and Rocchio added plus 12.8.
On the pitching side, Kai-Wei Teng was the model's top-valued arm with a WPA of plus 25.9, anchoring the Cleveland staff through a critical stretch and limiting further Houston damage after the Astros' fifth-inning surge. Shawn Armstrong added plus 6.0 WPA and Peyton Pallette contributed plus 3.4 as the Guardians' bullpen held firm in the later innings. Houston finished with ten hits and no errors but could not recover from Cleveland's eighth-inning eruption. The final box read 8-5 in Cleveland's favor, with the Guardians doing the bulk of their damage in a single inning that erased the Astros' advantage entirely.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.