The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Houston Astros 7-5 in ten innings on April 19, 2026, at Daikin Park, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had assessed as highly unlikely entering the game, with Houston holding a 72 percent pre-game win probability that ultimately collapsed to zero. The Cardinals trailed through much of the contest before a four-run fifth inning gave them an early lead, keyed by JJ Wetherholt's single off Mike Burrows that registered a win-probability swing of plus 17.0 percent. Houston answered in the eighth on Isaac Paredes's single off Riley O'Brien, a hit that represented the evening's single largest win-probability swing at plus 36.6 percent and briefly appeared to swing the game decisively back toward the Astros, who carried momentum into extra innings.
The Cardinals responded emphatically in the tenth. Masyn Winn delivered a double off Bryan King worth plus 36.4 percent in win probability, nearly matching the magnitude of Paredes's earlier blow, and Ramón Urías extended the damage with a hit by pitch from King that added another plus 23.2 percent swing, pushing St. Louis ahead by enough to absorb a Houston run in the bottom of the tenth. An earlier José Fermín double off King in the ninth, worth plus 17.5 percent, had set the stage for the Cardinals' decisive rally.
Paredes and Winn finished as the top performers by the DiamondIQ model's win-probability accounting, posting marks of plus 31.5 and plus 30.0 percent respectively, with Winn also leading position players in RE24 at plus 1.5. Urías contributed plus 23.2 percent WPA and plus 1.0 RE24. On the pitching side, Ryne Stanek led Cardinals relievers at plus 6.3 percent WPA, followed by Kai-Wei Teng at plus 4.8 percent and Matthew Liberatore at plus 4.0 percent, as St. Louis's bullpen held together long enough to secure the road victory.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.