The Philadelphia Phillies defeated the Arizona Diamondbacks 4-3 at Citizens Bank Park on April 11, 2026, in a game that was largely decided by a four-run third inning that the DiamondIQ model's estimate eventually pushed to a final win probability of 100 percent in Philadelphia's favor. Arizona struck first with two runs in the top of the first, but Brandon Pfaadt surrendered the lead and more in the bottom of the third when Kyle Schwarber unloaded a home run that shifted win probability by +28.1 percent, the single most consequential play of the game. Bryce Harper followed with a home run of his own off Pfaadt, adding another +9.9 percent swing, and Philadelphia's four-run inning effectively turned the game into a matter of damage control for the Diamondbacks.
Arizona made a late push in the eighth inning, with Jose Fernandez delivering a single off Brad Keller that moved the needle +9.6 percent and briefly kept the deficit manageable, but Alec Bohm's strikeout to end the eighth, recorded against Ryan Thompson, swung win probability +7.8 percent back toward Philadelphia and extinguished the threat. The Diamondbacks managed a run in the eighth but could not complete the comeback, finishing with seven hits against one error while Philadelphia posted five hits against one error of their own.
Schwarber led all players by WPA, finishing with a +25.0 percent figure and a +2.0 RE24, his third-inning home run serving as the game's decisive blow. On the pitching side, Jhoan Duran led Philadelphia's relievers with a +15.2 percent WPA contribution, followed by Orion Kerkering at +8.8 percent and Taijuan Walker at +7.9 percent, a trio that collectively protected the one-run lead through the final frames. The DiamondIQ model opened the game with Philadelphia as a 54 percent favorite and finished at certainty.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.