The Seattle Mariners defeated the Los Angeles Angels 3-1 in ten innings at Angel Stadium on April 3, 2026, with all the scoring crammed into the final frame. Through nine innings, the game was a study in sustained pitching dominance on both sides, with Bryan Woo leading the way for Seattle and Reid Detmers holding his own for Los Angeles. The DiamondIQ model entered the game estimating a 54 percent home win probability for the Angels, but that figure collapsed entirely by the final out, a reflection of how completely the Mariners seized control once extra innings began.
The decisive sequence came in the top of the tenth when Cole Young laced a triple off Brent Suter, a swing that shifted win probability by 48.4 percent in Seattle's favor and stands as the single most impactful play of the game by a considerable margin. Josh Naylor followed with a run-scoring single off Suter, adding another 28.4 percent to Seattle's win expectancy and providing critical insurance beyond the automatic runner. Cal Raleigh's pop out in the same inning was the lone significant swing against the Mariners, costing 11.4 percent in win probability, but the damage Suter absorbed was already done. Los Angeles managed only one run in the bottom half against Gabe Speier, with Yoán Moncada's strikeout sealing the outcome and adding 14.4 percent to Seattle's ledger.
Young finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 40.8 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.4, while Naylor contributed plus 21.2 percent WPA and plus 1.3 RE24 to round out the Mariners' offensive production in extra innings. On the pitching side, Bryan Woo was Seattle's most valuable arm at plus 39.3 percent WPA, a sign of how effectively he suppressed the Angels through his portion of the game. Andrés Muñoz's strikeout of Mike Trout in the ninth, worth 14.0 percent in win probability, kept the game scoreless at a pivotal moment. Trout's at-bat actually registered as the Angels' top positive WPA contribution at plus 17.1 percent, underscoring how little Los Angeles generated offensively, finishing with just one hit in ten innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.