Chicago Cubs at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Chicago Cubs 4-1 on April 3, 2026, at Progressive Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of home win probability climbing from 54% before first pitch to 100% by game's end. The Cubs drew first blood in the third inning on a Miguel Amaya double off Joey Cantillo, a swing that shifted win probability 10.4 points in Chicago's favor and briefly gave the visitors momentum in what had been a scoreless game. Cleveland answered with a run in the fifth, but the game's decisive sequence arrived in the seventh inning, when Hunter Harvey surrendered back-to-back home runs to Chase DeLauter and Gabriel Arias, swinging win probability 21.5 and 17.1 points toward Cleveland respectively and effectively closing the door on any Cubs comeback.

DeLauter was the game's most impactful performer, finishing with a WPA of plus-31.2% and a RE24 of plus-2.5, while Arias contributed a WPA of plus-19.3% and a RE24 of plus-1.2. Amaya's third-inning double represented the lone bright spot for Chicago's offense, producing a WPA of plus-9.2% and a RE24 of plus-0.9. The Cubs left opportunities on the table in the middle innings, most notably when Carson Kelly popped out in the sixth against Matt Festa, a play that swung win probability 8.2 points back toward Cleveland. On the mound, the Cleveland bullpen was collectively dominant, with Festa leading relievers at plus-13.7% WPA, followed by Hoby Milner at plus-11.5% and Connor Brogdon at plus-8.3%, as the Guardians held Chicago to five hits and committed no errors across nine innings.