The Atlanta Braves blanked the Arizona Diamondbacks 2-0 at Chase Field on April 3, 2026, delivering all of their offense in a decisive ninth inning that erased what had been a scoreless pitchers' duel through eight frames. The DiamondIQ model's estimate gave Arizona a 54% win probability before first pitch, a figure that held essentially intact through eight shutout innings before collapsing entirely once the Braves reached Paul Sewald in the top of the ninth. Ozzie Albies opened that inning with a home run that swung win probability by 34.2 percentage points, the single most impactful play of the game, and Matt Olson followed with another solo shot worth an additional 8.9 percentage points, leaving the Diamondbacks needing two runs simply to extend the game.
Arizona's best opportunity to change the complexion of the contest came and went in the sixth inning, when Geraldo Perdomo grounded into a double play off Grant Holmes, a sequence that cost the home side 12.2 percentage points of win probability at a moment when a different outcome could have broken the game open. Albies finished as the game's most impactful performer by a wide margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus 37.8 percent alongside a RE24 of plus 1.4, with his ninth-inning blast serving as the definitive turning point. On the pitching side, Eduardo Rodriguez led all pitchers with a WPA of plus 35.7 percent, followed by Holmes at plus 31.0 percent, as the two combined with Robert Suarez to limit Arizona to just two hits across nine innings and preserve a shutout that the Diamondbacks never found an answer for.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.