Colorado Rockies at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Miami Marlins walked off the Colorado Rockies 4-3 on March 29, 2026, at loanDepot park in a game that swung dramatically in the final inning. Colorado scored all three of its runs in the first inning and nursed that lead through eight frames, but Miami erased it entirely in the bottom of the ninth to take the opener. The DiamondIQ model's estimate of Miami's win probability began at 54 percent before first pitch and sat near zero entering the final half-inning before finishing at 100 percent — a complete reversal built almost entirely on a single swing.

That swing belonged to Owen Caissie, whose walk-off home run off Colorado reliever Victor Vodnik shifted win probability by +84.7 percentage points, the single largest play of the game by a wide margin. The ninth inning was not a clean path to the victory, however. Liam Hicks grounded into a double play that cost Miami 27.2 points of win probability, and the Marlins had to work through a moment earlier in the eighth when Heriberto Hernandez's strikeout — also against Vodnik — represented a 29.8-point swing against them. Xavier Edwards kept the ninth alive with a single worth +12.3 percentage points before Caissie delivered the decisive blow. Caissie finished as the game's top offensive contributor with a WPA of +78.5 and an RE24 of +1.6, while Javier Sanoja and Edwards added supporting value at +10.1 and +8.4 WPA respectively.

On the pitching side, Colorado's Antonio Senzatela was the most impactful arm by WPA at +22.2, followed by Jose Quintana at +16.0 and Tyler Phillips at +12.6 — a trio that collectively kept Miami off the board from the second inning through the eighth. Colorado finished with six hits and no errors, while Miami posted eight hits but committed two errors in a 4-3 final that, for nearly nine innings, appeared destined to go the other way.