Minnesota Twins at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Minnesota Twins took down the Baltimore Orioles 4-1 at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on March 28, 2026, handing Baltimore a loss in a game the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 54 percent home win probability. The Orioles struck first with a run in the second inning, but the Twins methodically answered and ultimately pulled away, holding Baltimore to just that single run against a rotation and bullpen that kept the home side from mounting any serious threat.

The turning point arrived in the top of the fifth, when Royce Lewis drove a home run off Kyle Bradish that swung win probability 19.0 percent in Minnesota's favor, the single most impactful play of the game by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Lewis finished as the game's top performer, posting a WPA of plus-18.1 percent and a RE24 of plus-1.6. The Twins added another run in the seventh when Kody Clemens singled off Dietrich Enns, a play that moved win probability an additional 9.6 percent toward Minnesota and pushed Clemens to plus-7.1 percent WPA on the night. Baltimore's best chance to respond came in the sixth, when Taylor Ward drew a walk off Eric Orze to shift probability 6.8 percent toward the Orioles, but Gunnar Henderson followed with a flyout that swung it back 12.1 percent the other way, effectively ending the threat.

On the pitching side, Eric Orze led Minnesota's staff with a WPA of plus-11.7 percent, followed by Taj Bradley at plus-9.7 percent and Justin Topa at plus-5.2 percent. The Twins finished with four hits and committed no errors, while Baltimore managed five hits but was undone by one error and an inability to convert its few opportunities. The DiamondIQ model closed with Baltimore at zero percent win probability, a reflection of how completely Minnesota controlled the final innings.