The Cleveland Guardians survived a late Seattle rally and won in ten innings at T-Mobile Park on March 28, 2026, defeating the Mariners 5-6 in a game the DiamondIQ model had opened with a 54 percent home win probability before swinging all the way to zero by the final out. The Mariners led through most of regulation, manufacturing single runs in the second and fourth innings while Cleveland went scoreless until breaking through with two in the sixth and one in the seventh to take a 3-2 edge. Seattle forced extra innings on a dramatic ninth inning in which Julio Rodríguez singled off Cade Smith to shift win probability by 41.8 points in the Mariners' favor, and Cole Young followed with a double off Smith that added another 25.1 points, ultimately tying the game and setting the stage for the tenth.
Cleveland seized control in the top of the tenth against Andrés Muñoz in what became the decisive sequence of the night. Steven Kwan's single off Muñoz added 31.3 win-probability points, and Chase DeLauter then delivered a home run off Muñoz worth 29.3 points, plating three runs that gave the Guardians a 6-4 advantage. Seattle answered with two runs in the bottom of the tenth to make it a one-run game, but Cole Young's strikeout to end the inning — carrying a 31.6-point swing in Cleveland's favor — closed it out.
Young finished as the top performer by DiamondIQ model win-probability added at plus 45.4 percent despite a RE24 of negative 0.6, reflecting his enormous late-game leverage. Kwan contributed plus 36.8 percent WPA with a RE24 of plus 1.0, and Rodríguez posted plus 35.7 percent WPA for Seattle despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Shawn Armstrong was the most impactful Cleveland reliever at plus 32.0 percent WPA, with Matt Festa and Casey Legumina each contributing positively as well.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.