The St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Tampa Bay Rays 9-7 at Busch Stadium on March 26, 2026, in a game that was largely decided by an explosive sixth inning. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 54 percent home win probability for St. Louis, and by the end of play that figure had climbed to 100 percent, a trajectory shaped almost entirely by a bottom-sixth frame in which the Cardinals plated eight runs to erase a deficit and seize control of the contest.
The decisive sequence began after Jonathan Aranda gave Tampa Bay a 1-0 lead with a fifth-inning home run off Matthew Liberatore, a swing that shifted win probability 12.4 percent in the Rays' favor. The Cardinals answered in the bottom of the sixth with a barrage against the Tampa Bay bullpen. Alec Burleson's home run off Griffin Jax was the single most consequential play of the game, adding 28.0 percentage points of win probability, and Iván Herrera followed with a sacrifice fly off Jax worth an additional 13.0 points. Victor Scott II's single off Garrett Cleavinger added another 12.0 points, and Chandler Simpson's single off Justin Bruihl had already contributed 11.7 points during Tampa Bay's own sixth-inning response attempt. Tampa Bay totaled 17 hits against the St. Louis staff but committed two errors and could not recover from the Cardinals' eight-run sixth.
Among individual performers, Burleson led all batters with a WPA of plus-28.5 and an RE24 of plus-2.8, making him the clear offensive catalyst for St. Louis. Aranda was the standout for Tampa Bay at plus-17.3 WPA and plus-1.0 RE24, while Yandy Díaz contributed plus-12.6 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24 to keep the Rays competitive into the late innings. On the mound, Riley O'Brien was the top Cardinals reliever by WPA at plus-13.0, supported by Drew Rasmussen at plus-11.7 and Liberatore at plus-8.0, a collective effort that proved sufficient to strand the Rays' 17-hit output and secure the two-run final margin.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.