The Tampa Bay Rays held off the Minnesota Twins 3-2 at Charlotte Sports Park on March 21, 2026, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate entering the game at a 62 percent home win probability and closing at 100 percent. The game was decided by a handful of pivotal swings, none more consequential than Chandler Simpson's seventh-inning home run off Dan Altavilla, which swung win probability by 34.0 percentage points in Tampa Bay's favor and effectively put the outcome out of reach. Minnesota had clawed back into the game on Ryan Jeffers's solo shot off Cole Sulser in the sixth, a swing worth plus-13.7 percent, following Matt Wallner's fourth-inning home run off Jackson Baumeister that added 11.4 points. Jonathan Aranda had given Tampa Bay the first lead with a third-inning home run off Joe Ryan worth plus-11.1 percent, setting the tone for a low-scoring contest shaped almost entirely by solo power.
Minnesota's best remaining opportunity to change the outcome came undone in the top of the ninth when Rayne Doncon grounded into a double play off Tommy McCollum, a sequence that cost the Twins 22.8 percentage points of win probability and extinguished the rally. Chandler Simpson finished as the game's most valuable bat by WPA at plus-31.7 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.8, while Aranda contributed plus-17.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.3. Tristan Gray added plus-10.6 percent WPA for Tampa Bay. On the pitching side, Joe Ryan led Minnesota starters with plus-16.8 percent WPA despite surrendering the Aranda homer, while McCollum's game-ending double play secured a plus-15.2 percent WPA performance. Mason Nichols contributed plus-10.8 percent WPA in relief for Tampa Bay, helping preserve a final line of three runs on five hits with no errors against Minnesota's six hits and one error.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.