The Houston Astros pulled away from the New York Mets 8-2 on March 14, 2026, at CACTI Park of the Palm Beaches, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Houston win moving from 54 percent before first pitch to 100 percent by the final out. The game was effectively decided in the bottom of the sixth, when Yordan Alvarez launched a home run off Saul Garcia that added 24.2 percent to Houston's win probability, the single most impactful play of the afternoon. The Astros had already scored one run in the first inning but had been held quiet through five frames before erupting for three in the sixth, a rally that shifted the contest decisively in their favor. Houston added three more in the seventh and one in the eighth to finish with eight runs on seven hits and no errors, while New York committed one error and managed eleven hits without generating enough run support.
The Mets had opportunities to keep the game competitive but failed to capitalize when it mattered most. In the top of the sixth, Christian Arroyo struck out against Peter Lambert in a spot that cost New York 10.5 percent in win probability, and in the seventh, Mark Vientos grounded into a double play off Lambert that subtracted another 15.3 percent, effectively extinguishing what remained of New York's chances. Jose Ramos and Cristian Pache each singled in the seventh to account for the Mets' most positive individual plate appearances of the inning, each adding 9.1 percent, but the rally produced only one run and came far too late against a comfortable Houston lead.
Yordan Alvarez finished as the game's dominant individual performer, posting a 24.6 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.4, figures that reflected the outsized consequence of his sixth-inning home run. A.J. Ewing contributed a 12.1 percent WPA for Houston, and Jose Ramos led Mets batters with 8.6 percent despite the loss. On the mound, Ryan Weiss paced all pitchers with a 16.2 percent WPA, with Freddy Peralta and Roddery Munoz each adding meaningful contributions as Houston's staff held New York to two runs across nine innings.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.