The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Cleveland Guardians 9-6 on March 1, 2026, at Salt River Fields at Talking Stick, turning what had been a competitive early contest into a decisive home victory. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened at 54 percent in favor of Arizona before finishing at 100 percent, a trajectory that accurately reflected how the game unfolded once the Diamondbacks seized control in the middle innings.
The fifth inning was the turning point and the source of the most consequential swings of the afternoon. Cleveland momentarily applied pressure when Angel Martínez connected on a home run off Kohl Drake, a play that added 11.2 percent to the Guardians' win probability and briefly tightened the game. Arizona answered emphatically in the bottom half against Doug Nikhazy, stringing together the three highest-impact batting plays of the game. Ildemaro Vargas delivered a single worth plus 16.1 percent in win probability, Pavin Smith followed with a double adding another 15.4 percent, and Ryan Waldschmidt doubled as well for plus 13.2 percent, the three plays collectively reshaping the game's outcome in a single frame. The Diamondbacks tacked on three more runs in the sixth, with Gabriel Moreno's single off Trenton Denholm adding 13.3 percent to Arizona's probability.
By WPA, Waldschmidt led all batters at plus 23.5 percent with a RE24 of plus 2.6, while Vargas finished at plus 22.2 percent and Smith at plus 18.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.9. On the mound, Hunter Stanley paced the Arizona staff at plus 6.6 percent, followed by Trevor Stephan at plus 6.1 percent and Kevin Ginkel at plus 5.1 percent, as the Diamondbacks held a 15-hit attack together cleanly without committing an error.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.