The Miami Marlins defeated the Philadelphia Phillies 6-1 on February 24, 2026, at Roger Dean Chevrolet Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win moving from 54% before the game to a certainty by the final out. Miami's offense was largely dormant through the first four innings, managing just a single run in the second, but the fifth inning erased any remaining competitiveness and put the game firmly out of reach.
The decisive sequence came in the bottom of the fifth, when Joe Mack connected on a home run off Phillies pitcher Andrew Walling that shifted win probability by plus 32.8 percentage points, the single largest swing of the game. Otto Lopez followed with a double that added another 11.3 percentage points, extending a rally that produced four runs in the frame. An Esteury Ruiz strikeout, also off Walling, represented the inning's most significant negative swing at minus 9.0 percentage points, briefly slowing the damage but not before Miami had effectively closed the door. An earlier sequence in the second inning showed some Phillies vulnerability as well, with a Brendan Jones walk shifting 6.4 points in Miami's favor before an Otto Lopez forceout off Max Lazar neutralized the threat.
Among individual performers, Mack led all batters with a plus 27.7 WPA and plus 2.8 RE24, his home run serving as the game's central moment. Liam Hicks and Kyle Stowers each contributed plus 6.2 WPA on the offensive side, while Zach Brzykcy paced Miami's pitching staff at plus 6.3 WPA, edged narrowly ahead of John King and Alex McFarlane, who each posted plus 5.7 WPA. The Phillies finished with four hits and an error, never generating the sustained offensive pressure needed to challenge a Miami club that the model favors as a convincing winner.
Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.