New York Mets at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the San Diego Padres 8-3 at Petco Park on August 22, 2024, handing the home side a decisive loss despite San Diego entering the game as a 57% favorite according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. The Mets built their advantage steadily before an explosive five-run ninth inning closed the door entirely, sending the model's win probability for the Padres from a pre-game majority position all the way to zero.

The game's most consequential moments came on the strength of missed opportunities for San Diego and timely execution from New York. Luis Arraez's ground into a double play in the bottom of the seventh, coming off Reed Garrett, was the single biggest probability swing of the game at negative 14.0%, extinguishing a potential Padres rally. Earlier, in the bottom of the fifth, Jake Cronenworth grounded into another double play off Luis Severino, a negative 12.3% swing that compounded the damage from what had briefly looked like a promising frame after Jurickson Profar drew a walk for a positive 11.9% swing. The Mets had already seized momentum in the fourth, when Jose Iglesias doubled off Dylan Cease for a positive 8.1% swing, followed immediately by a Jeff McNeil single worth 7.9%.

McNeil finished as the top offensive contributor by the DiamondIQ model's measure, posting a plus 14.1% WPA and plus 1.5 RE24, while Profar led San Diego's batters with plus 11.4% WPA and plus 1.6 RE24 despite the team's loss. Mason McCoy added plus 8.9% WPA and plus 1.3 RE24 for New York. On the mound, Luis Severino was dominant, finishing with a plus 20.6% WPA as he repeatedly neutralized San Diego threats, supported by Phil Maton at plus 13.3% and Bryan Hoeing at plus 10.2% out of the bullpen. The Mets collected 17 hits on the night against zero Padres errors, making it a thorough and well-constructed road victory.