Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 0 |
| HOU | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox handed the Houston Astros a 4-1 defeat at Minute Maid Park on August 21, 2024, with early scoring in the first and second innings building a lead that Houston never managed to overcome. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 55% pre-game win probability favoring the Astros as the home side, but that number eroded steadily through the night and closed at 0% as Boston's pitching staff stifled what had been a potent Houston lineup.
The seventh inning served as the decisive sequence of the evening. Ceddanne Rafaela delivered the most impactful offensive play of the game, a double off Tayler Scott that swung win probability 12.0% in Boston's favor and contributed to his game-high WPA of +14.8% alongside a RE24 of +1.6. Houston briefly kept hope alive when Jake Meyers singled off Greg Weissert to generate a +7.0% swing for the Astros, but the inning quickly unraveled. Brennan Bernardino retired Yordan Alvarez on a strikeout that shifted the win-probability needle 14.5% against Houston, and Greg Weissert followed by coaxing a flyout from Alex Bregman worth another 12.2% swing in Boston's direction. The Astros' inability to convert in that frame effectively ended the contest.
On the mound, Cooper Criswell was the standout performer of the night, finishing with a model-leading +24.8% WPA. Bernardino added +14.5% with his critical Alvarez strikeout, and Luis Garcia contributed +13.3% WPA to round out a Boston pitching effort that kept Houston to a single run on eight hits. Among Houston's batters, Jon Singleton posted a modest +4.6% WPA, but no Astro was able to produce the kind of sustained damage necessary to threaten a Boston staff that operated with precision throughout.