MLB Recap · August 21, 2024

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

BOS4
Final
HOU1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
BOS110000101470
HOU100000000180

The Story

The Boston Red Sox handed the Houston Astros a 4-1 defeat at Minute Maid Park on August 21, 2024, with early scoring in the first and second innings building a lead that Houston never managed to overcome. The DiamondIQ model opened with a 55% pre-game win probability favoring the Astros as the home side, but that number eroded steadily through the night and closed at 0% as Boston's pitching staff stifled what had been a potent Houston lineup.

The seventh inning served as the decisive sequence of the evening. Ceddanne Rafaela delivered the most impactful offensive play of the game, a double off Tayler Scott that swung win probability 12.0% in Boston's favor and contributed to his game-high WPA of +14.8% alongside a RE24 of +1.6. Houston briefly kept hope alive when Jake Meyers singled off Greg Weissert to generate a +7.0% swing for the Astros, but the inning quickly unraveled. Brennan Bernardino retired Yordan Alvarez on a strikeout that shifted the win-probability needle 14.5% against Houston, and Greg Weissert followed by coaxing a flyout from Alex Bregman worth another 12.2% swing in Boston's direction. The Astros' inability to convert in that frame effectively ended the contest.

On the mound, Cooper Criswell was the standout performer of the night, finishing with a model-leading +24.8% WPA. Bernardino added +14.5% with his critical Alvarez strikeout, and Luis Garcia contributed +13.3% WPA to round out a Boston pitching effort that kept Houston to a single run on eight hits. Among Houston's batters, Jon Singleton posted a modest +4.6% WPA, but no Astro was able to produce the kind of sustained damage necessary to threaten a Boston staff that operated with precision throughout.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025BOS bats firstFinalHOU win %BOS win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 55.2% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Yordan Alvarez Strikeout
Bot 7th · off Brennan Bernardino
-14.5%
Alex Bregman Flyout
Bot 7th · off Greg Weissert
-12.2%
Ceddanne Rafaela Double
Top 7th · off Tayler Scott
+12.0%
Jake Meyers Single
Bot 7th · off Greg Weissert
+7.0%
Shay Whitcomb Groundout
Bot 2nd · off Cooper Criswell
-6.4%

Top Batters by WPA

Ceddanne Rafaela+14.8%+1.6 RE24
Trey Cabbage+8.5%-0.0 RE24
Jon Singleton+4.6%+0.3 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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